Gunes Murat Tezcur
 

Research

BOOK MANUSCRIPT

The Paradox of Moderation: Muslim Reformers in Iran and Turkey (under review)


An influential theory in political science argues that integration of radical political movements into pluralistic political system brings their moderation. As radicals form vote-seeking electoral parties and avoid confrontation with the state for strategic reasons, they gradually eschew their extremist platforms and adopt centrist platforms with broad appeal. This theory has been extensively applied to the socialists in Europe.
        The book focuses on the period from the late 1980s to the first half of the 2000s. 
The focus is on the trajectory of the reform front (RF) in Iran and the Justice and Development Party (JDP) in Turkey. The book addresses three questions: (1) what factors explain the evolution of the Iranian and Turkish Islamic political actors since the early 1990s; (2) Under what conditions do Islamic political movements contribute to the process of democratic transition and consolidation; (3) What are the implications of post-Islamism for secularism and liberal-democracy? It argues that moderation of radicals does not necessarily produce results that are conducive to democratization. Moreover behavioral moderation is contingent on prior ideological transformation. The comparison of Iran and Turkey follows the logic of "method of agreement" and conducts a comparative historical analysis of the evolution of Islamic political actors in two dramatically different political settings. While post-Islamists developed platforms with wide public appeal and emerged victorious at the ballot box, their moderation eventually undermined their capacity to achieve democratic transition and consolidation
        It is based on extensive fieldwork in Iran and Turkey between spring 2002 and spring 2008. The sources include ethnographic research (i.e. in-depth interviews and participant observant study of elections), original survey data, statistical analyses of electoral results, and printed and electronical material in primary languages (Persian and Turkish).


SCHOLARLY PUBLICATIONS

"The Moderation Theory Revisited: The Case of Islamic Political Actors," Party Politics (forthcoming)

An influential political science literature argues that the integration of radical political parties into the political system leads to their moderation. These parties trade off their ideological platforms for electoral viability and political legality. Radicals become moderates as a result of strategic interests. This paper revisits this thesis and applies it to the Islamic political actors in Iran and Turkey by employing the comparative method of agreement. It reaches three conclusions. First, moderation thesis provides strong tools in explaining the evolution of Islamists into Muslim democrats. Second, moderation is a double-edged sword especially in regimes with strong undemocratic characteristics. Moderation of radicals may result in their domestication that does not contribute to democratic transition or consolidation. Finally, change in the ideologies of political elites is central in understanding behavioral change. The data sources include ethnographic work, primary language sources, and historical narratives.

"Religiosity and the Islamic Rule in Iran," Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 47, 2 (June 2008): 211-224. 

This article investigates  the relationship between religiosity and support for Islamic rule in the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). Are high levels of religiosity associated with an ideology characterized by clerical rule, supremacy of Islamic law, and state enforcement of Islam? The data come from a random sampling survey conducted in Tehran in August 2003. It covers a range of questions on religiosity, social, and political attitudes, and has a sample of 412 respondents. The analyses show that religiosity is closely affiliated with an ideological understanding of Islam in Tehran. Interestingly, political dissatisfaction does not negatively affect this association. Shi‘ism in Iran has evolved from a “world-shaking” force into a “world-legitimating” force. 

"Elections and Opposition in the Islamic Republic of Iran," in Political Participation in the Middle East and North Africa Ellen Lust-Okar and Saloua Zerhouni edited  (Boulders, CO: Lynne Reinner, 2008)

This chapter offers an analytical survey of the elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) with a focus on two interrelated questions: 1) what are the major characteristics of, and the nature of political participation within, the elections in the Islamic Republic? 2) how do elections affect the evolution of factional politics? A main argument of this chapter is that elections primarily serve to perpetuate pluralist authoritarianism in the IRI. Rather than being catalyst for democratization or simply solidifying the regime's control over society, elections manage inter-factional conflict and introduce an element of uncertainty and dynamism to Iranian politics unparalleled in many other authoritarian regimes. The chapter is based on the author's participant observant study of the 2005 presidential elections, systematic analysis of electoral data, and compilation of printed and electronic news in Persian especially during the electoral periods. Fieldwork in 2005 involved observing campaigns of the presidential candidates, interviewing campaign managers, workers, journalists and voters.

"Constitutionalism, Judiciary and Democracy in Islamic Societies," Polity 39, 4 (October 2007): 479-501.

This article reconsiders the relationship between secularism, liberalism, and democracy in non-secularized societies by focusing on judicial activism. The goal is to identify the forms of constitutionalism and judicial review that are necessary for the sustainability of democracy in societies where exclusive and holistic interpretations of religion remain pervasive. How is it possible to prevent majority rule from decaying into the tyranny of the majority in such societies? Neither the guardianship regimes embodied by the Iranian and Turkish republics nor Islamic democracy provide viable models that overcome the tension between constitutionalism and democracy. However, a conflict between these two principles in Islamic societies is avoidable. Judicial review, sanctioned by democratically written
liberal constitutions and not guarded by non-elected institutions such as military,

"Religious Participation among Muslims: Iranian Exceptionalism," Critique: Critical Middle Eastern Studies 15, 3 (Fall 2006): 217-232.

Recent research has suggested that secularization, understood either as the decline of religious beliefs or the marginalization of religion in public life, has not occurred in most parts of the world.  Islam especially has remained a vibrant force that affects how people make sense of social relations and politics. However, the indicators of religiosity in predominantly Muslim countries have not been studied extensively. Although these societies are assumed to be characterized by high levels of religious belief, research has demonstrated significant variance in mosque attendance rates. In particular, mosque attendance rates in Iran are surprisingly low. This article aims to specify the reasons for the low rates of mosque attendance among Iranians. The data for the article comes from the World Values Survey conducted in Muslim countries and a survey conducted in Tehran by the authors. Survey evidence indicates a strong correlation between frequency of mosque attendance and positive evaluations of political governance. It also reveals that many people with strong religious beliefs do not attend Friday congregational prayers.


CURRENT RESEARCH PROJECTS

Religious Political Parties in Electoral Competition: A Comparative Study of Indonesia and Turkey (with Mirjam Kunkler)

Research Project funded by the United States Institute of Peace

Dynamics of Kurdish Nationalism: An Organizational Approach 

      Working Paper

War on Terror, Democracy and Culture of Impunity: The Case of Turkey

Working Paper

Muslims NGOs and Democracy Promotion 

Working Paper

Cleavages in Turkish Politics: A Geographical Perspective

Working Paper

Women, Islam, and Political Candidacy: An Experimental Study in Turkey (with Richard Matland)

Working Project 



DATA SETS

 

     Tehran Surveys (August 2003 and December 2007): Multi-stage area probability surveys on religious values and political attitudes with a sample of 412 and 450 respectively .

     Iranian Presidential Elections of 2005: Complete results at county level (around 320 units of observations).

     Turkish Parliamentary Elections: Complete results from the 1995, 1999, 2002, and 2007 elections at county level (more than 900 units of observations), and at neighborhood level for selected provinces.

 

     Turkey: Socioeconomic and Demographic Indicators at county and neighborhood levels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This site was last updated 04/10/07